Xarthisius

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dobrykot пишет: Quote Xarthisius пишет: There've been reports of new 2NLs being sent. We're going to scan 'At NVC' cases (~20k captchas afaict) again. Long waited "blue bump" in 16k < x < 18k EU range should materialize after that Damn. So we`ll see blue cancer again. It`s gonna be bad. Man, do you have any forecast? Can we touch the big numbers? 33+ at least.

I don't have any predictions right now. Let's wait till we know a number of interviews in May. We will have data for 3 months of 2NLs. Also VB for June will be interesting as we're finally approaching the density drop that goes all the way up to EU36k We can speculate then.

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xiaoandong пишет: What’s the case number?

EU13xxx

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dobrykot пишет: Well, tomorrow the moment of truth, whether the transit / ready graphs will go up, or already smoothly and evenly spread over the level of no more than 20%. It's time.

It doesn't work like that. Couple of information about the scraper and charts:
1. Charts are not connected directly to the database we use for scraping, they operate on data dumps instead. That's in order to prevent the situation where people looking at the graphs would strain the server and disrupt people scraping actual captchas.
2. You need to understand that the process (getting data from CEAC via solving CAPTCHAs) has some inherent flaws. One of the most important is the fact that scraping takes time... If I release data, let's say today (03/22/18), it's the state of scraper database and it does not necessarily correspond to the state of CEAC database that day. In other words, it takes CEAC around 1 minute to change status of 1500 cases from 'At NVC' to 'In Transit', but it takes us over 3-4 days to get that information out. To make matter worse when we're scraping 'At NVC' cases, we're not checking other cases (like if 'Ready' turned to 'Issued'/'Refused'). The latter can cause an apparent "jumps" if you're trying to derive a number of Issued cases per day/week etc, which somebody did on this forum few posts ago.
3. Before any "bump" in transit/ready can happen we actually need to scrape 'At NVC' cases again. We'll do that as soon as people start reporting they're receiving 2nd batch of 2NLs. I haven't seen a single report yet, neither in comments on Simon's blog, nor on various forums I track. I don't expect it to happen tomorrow.

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pashtetx пишет: Quote dobrykot wrote: If in a few days we see the blue hump of transit cases with the top in the region of 35-40%, it will be clearly an unkind sign. We will not see. All curves are highly correlated with no response. And his schedule sags. So it will be with the rest.

We will. Current number of 2NLs is almost exactly a half of what we expected. There's going to be another round of invitations later this month and those are still going to be invitations for May. (BTW the same thing happened a month ago). Many people with cases in range April cutoff < x < May cutoff reported that they still waiting for 2NL.

@Olya Len looks like you are one of them. I'd wait a week or two before contacting KCC. There's still plenty of time till May...